stuart piazza .blog

29 Jan, 2010

To Early Adopt or Not to Early Adopt

Posted by: Stuart In: Advice| Industry| Technology

When a brand new product comes out on the market, especially if it is made by one of our favorite companies, we just have to have it. I’m not talking about the new cellphone model that Motorola comes out with every week, I’m talking about something brand new and extremely over-hyped that places itself in the back of our mind until we have it in our hands.

For example, remember the Xbox 360 launch? It was one of the first consoles ever that caused people to camp out in the blistering cold weeks before just to snag one of the ten consoles that a brick and mortar store received. The PlayStation 3 and the Wii caused similar effects upon consumers, but they weren’t nearly as competitive as the Xbox 360 launch.

But what happened with the Xbox 360? There were massive failure rates – over half of the consoles sold to early adopters overheated and had to be replaced. Microsoft responded by redesigning the system.

What did they do? Well, for starters, they implemented a new cooling system to make sure that the “Red Ring of Death” was a thing of the past. Sure, I’m sure it still happens here and there, but it’s not the market mess that it was the first year that the Xbox 360 was out.

So it’s a year later and Microsoft is fixing the consoles and preparing the huge shipments of the new ones with the new cooling system. The PlayStation 3 is about to be launched and everyone is talking about HDMI. “The PlayStation 3 has HDMI and is truly HD unlike the Xbox 360″, they said. “I’m going to get a PlayStation 3 because component cables suck,” they said. So what did Microsoft do? They took this perfect time of reconstruction to add HDMI and even larger hard drives to compete with Sony.

Hey, those of you who camped out in the cold, took off work and school, and even that guy who was followed home from an Xbox 360 launch and got robbed, guess what? Your crappier console is going to have problems and not have some new features because you early adopted! Sounds fair, right?

This is a perfect example of how early adopting is a bad thing to do. Sure, you can be one of the first to use it, but if you wait, something good may happen. A new generation is always around the corner which will almost always include new features and functionality for the same price or even cheaper. And to those of you who paid $600+ for a PS3 on eBay the first week that came out, I truly feel sorry for you. The PS3 now has more harddrive space and functionality than ever, and they’ve been in stock only a few weeks after you got yours on eBay.

When GameStop asks you if you want to pre-order the next Xbox, the Xbox 720 or whatever, say no. The next generation of gaming is going to be the same or worse. Everyone sees now that controlling the market and keeping supply under demand increases hype, and thus allows the market to flourish with software sales before hardware. Thanks, Nintendo.

Does this apply only to gaming? No! Think about the iPhone. Thousands camped out outside of malls and Apple Stores to get their hands on the first generation of the device – the one that didn’t have 3G. Apple dropped the price $200 only a few months after it came out. Thanks to Steve Jobs and his Open iPhone Letter, Apple did offer a $100 store credit for those who got it first, but they were still out another $100. Also, less than a year later, the iPhone 3G was announced which deemed the first generation pretty much useless. Then, less than another year later, the iPhone 3GS came out, which is the only version of the iPhone that runs iPhone OS 3.0 smoothly.

But what about the people with extra cash in their pockets that needs to own absolutely ever generation out there? They are the fortunate ones in the technology world, I suppose, but companies need to think about everyone by increasing the lifespan of their products. Apple especially leaves out features just so they can have a new update next year and make everyone buy the almost same product again.

So just remember this. If you early adopt, you will be disappointed. If you buy, for example, the iPad (3G version) now, which lacks some features that were hoped for and it is all during the transition of everything to 4G and beyond, you will be disappointed. It doesn’t have a camera – within a year it will. When something is announced, let everyone else get it first and see how things go. If there’s no announcement of a change to the lineup shortly thereafter (6 months), then grab one. If a new generation comes out, then you’ll be the cool kid on the block. It pays off to wait.

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